Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: Universal and Illumination’s THE SUPER MARIO GALAXY MOVIE Likely to Claim 2026’s First $100M+ Domestic Launch

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Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:

• The Super Mario Galaxy Movie (April 1)
  • The highly anticipated sequel is positioned as this year’s pre-summer tentpole animated release, following on the enormous success of 2023’s The Super Mario Bros. Movie which drew a massive $574.9 million domestically ($1.36 billion globally) off a $204.6 five-day Easter bow in North America.
  • While critics were lukewarm toward the 2023 adaptation (59 percent on Rotten Tomatoes), audiences and families were the primary box office drivers as they gave a 95 percent approval rating.
  • Anticipation for Galaxy has climbed since confirmation that it would continue expanding upon the source video game franchise’s mythology and colorful, comedic world of characters — Yoshi, in particular, who was teased at the end of the first film. The returning voice cast, notably Jack Black’s Bowser, is another upside.
  • Trailer impression Galaxy‘s teasers have been robust while marketing rotation has been heavy theatrically in front of Zootopia 2 and GOAT as well as during major streaming events like the ongoing Winter Olympics. Duplicating the Easter window release should again be quite lucrative with minimal competition around it (particularly until late May when Disney drops The Mandalorian & Grogu), though it remains to be seen how much the success of GOAT and/or Pixar’s Hoppers in March slightly soften upfront demand and create a possible backloading scenario.
  • If there’s a significant cautionary tale, it’s to account for the fact that decades’ worth of build-up for a Mario movie adaptation true to the spirit of the games won’t be as potent of a driving force this time. This is likely to mean some relatively diminished returns versus the 2023 film, but as always, word of mouth will ultimately dictate the long run of things. Ultimately, this is still poised to be one of the biggest animated releases (if not overall releases) of 2026 with cross-generational appeal and, of course, a full premium screen spread.
• The Drama (April 3)
  • A24 is no stranger to cinephile-driven commercial breakouts in recent years. Putting Zendaya and Robert Pattinson together in a mysterious rom-com is already a potential stroke of brilliance. If reviews are positive, it should serve as a strong counter-programmer for young adults over the holiday frame up against the Mario sequel.
• Other key updates:
  • We’re still observing highly encouraging signs for next week’s Scream 7 as social buzz and pre-sales rival and exceed those of the best in the franchise. Projections remain volatile as the series does to tend to be a little more front-loaded in this pre-release window than other walk-up-heavy horror franchises. Still, the odds of a Scream-best domestic opening weekend continue moving in favor of the Neve Campbell-led and Kevin Williamson-helmed legacy follow-up.
  • Project Hail Mary tickets are now on sale. We expect an initial rush from fans of the book as well as cinephiles scooping up tickets to IMAX 70mm screenings across the country. An increase in forecasts may or may not be warranted in the near future, but we’ll revisit that once a little more data is available to support being even more bullish on what is poised to become a major springtime theatrical hit.
  • I Can Only Imagine 2 posted $1.8 million in total previews entering its debut this weekend. A studio source notes that includes $1.325 million from last weekend’s early access shows. Barring any wonky math throughout the weekend (it’s happened before), that means the faith-based sequel will probably land on the lower end of industry forecasts and well below our admittedly against-the-grain projection driven by other faith-based breakout models. Opening weekend looks to finish somewhere between $7.5 million and 12 million.

Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts
as of 2/19/26

(All ranges and pinpoint forecasts are available to paid subscribers in our Substack newsletter.)