This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Mortal Kombat II
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $38.5 — 49 million
Studio Tracking: $35 million
The Sheep Detectives
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $15 — 21 million
Hit Me Hard and Soft: The Tour
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $7 — 11.5 million
Studio Tracking: $7 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Mother’s Day will be provide a big lift to cinema attendance this weekend with a healthy market boasting multiple female-friendly films in release.
- Notably, The Devil Wears Prada 2 should ride its wave of positive reception following a strong $76.8 million domestic launch, Michael aims to continue its crowd-pleasing run despite a loss of IMAX screens starting Thursday afternoon, while The Sheep Detectives will lean on Hugh Jackman’s star power and a strong ensemble cast with a well-reviewed, family-friendly whodunnit appealing to families with young kids.
- Not to be overlooked, Billie Eilish’s Hit Me Hard and Soft: The Tour will also cater to her fan base with its specialty release in 3D.
- Smartly countering those and other entries, Warner Bros.’ Mortal Kombat II will make a play for its core male-driven crowd of video game fans young and old.
- Early reviews are largely positive (74 percent fresh from 50 critics on Rotten Tomatoes), while pre-sale momentum has continued along expected pathing following our initial public forecasts.
- Franchise sequels and video game adaptations tend to be front-loaded by nature, so that remains a caution going into the weekend. Still, with a full arsenal of premium screens (including IMAX), goodwill from 2021’s well-received entry, and the introduction of Karl Urban as Johnny Cage, pre-sale and walk-up matinee business could do quite well before the Sunday holiday.
Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn a projected $170 million+. That would be 111 percent above the same weekend in 2025 ($80.6 million, led by Thunderbolts*‘ $32.4 million sophomore frame) and 6 percent above the same weekend in 2019 ($160.3 million, led by Avengers: Endgame‘s $63.3 million third weekend).
NOTE: Beginning soon, the full weekend forecast chart below will be available exclusively through our Substack. Click here to become a subscriber.
Film |
Distributor |
3-Day (Fri-Sun) Weekend Forecast |
3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, May 10 |
Estimated Location Count (as of Tue) |
Mortal Kombat II |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$46,000,000 |
NEW |
$46,000,000 |
3,400 |
The Devil Wears Prada 2 |
Disney (20th) |
$40,800,000 |
-47% |
$140,700,000 |
4,150 |
Michael |
Lionsgate |
$38,000,000 |
-30% |
$245,100,000 |
3,800 |
The Sheep Detectives |
Amazon MGM |
$17,000,000 |
NEW |
$17,000,000 |
3,000 |
Billie Eilish – Hit Me Hard and Soft: The Tour |
Paramount |
$10,100,000 |
NEW |
$10,100,000 |
2,600 |
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie |
Universal |
$7,700,000 |
-36% |
$413,600,000 |
2,900 |
Project Hail Mary |
Amazon MGM |
$5,000,000 |
-41% |
$326,300,000 |
2,500 |
Hokum |
NEON |
$2,700,000 |
-58% |
$11,100,000 |
1,900 |
Animal Farm |
Angel Studios |
$1,700,000 |
-49% |
$5,900,000 |
2,600 |
Deep Water |
Magenta Light Studios |
$1,100,000 |
-48% |
$4,000,000 |
1,700 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
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