This report is TEMPORARILY available for free, in its entirety, on our site. After May 3, 2024, most tracking reports will be paywalled exclusively through Shawn Robbins and Box Office Theory’s Substack, which you can subscribe to for just $7 per month. Paid access includes ad-free viewing and pinpoint forecasts alongside tracking ranges.
The final weekend before summer movie season begins is poised to deliver some degree of sleeper successes with two new wide releases entering the domestic market.
Leading the pack this weekend will be MGM’s Challengers as it looks to capitalize on Zendaya’s star power and appeal to young audiences (namely Gen Zers). The Luca Guadagnino-directed drama also boast a resounding 95 percent fresh score from 117 Rotten Tomatoes critics as of Wednesday morning.
Pre-release social media and pre-sales tracking are also highly encouraging for Challengers as it trends close to the pace of films such as Anyone But You and Don’t Worry Darling. The film’s final trailer, released online just two days ago, has already generated more than 1 million views on YouTube.
With last weekend’s early access shows included, overall previews could climb toward $1.5 million or more when Thursday shows are included. For the weekend, Challengers appears to be swinging for a range of $16 million to $20 million or more.
Lionsgate and Kingdom Story Company are also back in action this weekend with a notable counter-programmer in the form of Unsung Hero, a faith-based telling that should specifically appeal to fans of Christian music artists Rebecca St. James and King + Country.
The faith-based audience has been a stable of sleeper successes over the past decade, including a resurgence of popularity in the last few years. Unsung Hero is currently tracking near the top of the pack with pre-sales not far off the pace of last year’s Jesus Revolution.
Also rolling early access shows into the weekend, Unsung Hero rolls out with previews on both Wednesday and Thursday. Trending to exceed $2 million from those shows alone, an overall weekend debut between $8 million and $13 million is looking achievable.
Weekend Forecast
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 30 percent less than the same weekend in 2023 ($88.6 million) and 84 percent less than the same weekend in 2019 ($396.5 million gross, driven by the historic $357.1 million opening of Avengers: Endgame).
This report is TEMPORARILY available for free, in its entirety, on our site. After May 3, 2024, most tracking reports will be paywalled exclusively through Shawn Robbins and Box Office Theory’s Substack, which you can subscribe to for just $7 per month. Paid access includes ad-free viewing and pinpoint forecasts alongside tracking ranges.
Film |
Distributor |
FSS Weekend Forecast |
Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, April 28 |
Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed) |
3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
Challengers |
MGM |
$18,000,000 |
$18,000,000 |
~3,400 |
NEW |
Unsung Hero |
Lionsgate / Kingdom Story Company |
TBD |
TBD |
~2,800 |
NEW |
Civil War |
A24 |
$6,600,000 |
$55,800,000 |
~3,600 |
-41% |
Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$6,200,000 |
$180,600,000 |
~3,300 |
-35% |
Abigail |
Universal Pictures |
$5,000,000 |
$18,400,000 |
~3,384 |
-51% |
The Ministry of Ungentlemenly Warfare |
Lionsgate |
$4,500,000 |
$16,000,000 |
~2,845 |
-49% |
Kung Fu Panda 4 |
Universal Pictures |
$4,000,000 |
$185,500,000 |
~2,800 |
-15% |
Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire |
Sony / Columbia |
$3,400,000 |
$107,600,000 |
~2,900 |
-24% |
Dune: Part Two |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$2,400,000 |
$280,100,000 |
~1,300 |
-19% |
Spy x Family Code: White |
Sony / Crunchyroll |
$1,200,000 |
$7,100,000 |
~2,009 |
-75% |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
For media inquiries or questions about the forecast, please contact us.
This report is TEMPORARILY available for free, in its entirety, on our site. After May 3, 2024, most tracking reports will be paywalled exclusively through Shawn Robbins and Box Office Theory’s Substack, which you can subscribe to for just $7 per month. Paid access includes ad-free viewing and pinpoint forecasts alongside tracking ranges.