The full version of this report appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Moana (Disney / July 10)
- Disney’s latest live-action remake will enter a busy summer market as family movies go, notably Universal’s Minions & Monsters in its second frame and the Mouse House’s own Toy Story 5 in its fourth. The pic will have a full IMAX and PLF spread on opening weekend before Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey arrives one week later.
- Coupled with an infectious song lineup that could turn into interactive sing-along experiences in some theaters, Dwayne Johnson’s reprisal as Maui after voicing the character previously may also be a drawing factor among his fans.
- Although the animated sequel was met with mixed reception in late 2024 and there’s some speculation about potential saturation of the brand in a short time frame, Moana‘s popularity likely remains sturdy enough for this live-action remake to stand on its own. That in mind, blockbusters such as The Lion King, Beauty and the Beast, Aladdin, and The Little Mermaid had multiple generations growing up with those films to develop a large audience over a long period of time.
- Online reactions to the film’s trailers have been divisive, but this film’s core audience is largely offline. Moms and daughters, especially young kids who may have been too young to see the original film in theaters, will be key to the remake’s box office runway as the same audiences were for Little Mermaid three years ago. The back half of summer has little direct competition for those moviegoers.
- Evil Dead Burn (Warner Bros. / July 10)
- The franchise originally created by and regularly produced by Sam Raimi has continued to thrive among today’s generation of horror fans.
- Early trailers and industry screenings have drawn positive reactions, while the mid-summer corridor looks favorable ahead of August and more than a month removed from the current game-changing runs of Obsession and Backrooms.
- Notable Updates:
- Toy Story 5 continues to trend upward with strong generational goodwill, peak summer calendar positioning, and the advantage of Juneteenth and Father’s Day holidays on opening weekend. Before the publishing of this report, Taylor Swift herself confirmed and released a new single for the film titled “I Knew It, I Knew You”, which quickly topped 1 million streams and approached the top of the trending chart on YouTube. Taylor’s own Instagram announcement counted over 3.1 million likes.
- Supergirl pre-sales began this week and a sampling of early trends line ups with our previous forecast ranges for now. With a packed June slate and several key tentpoles yet to come before it, we’ll continue monitoring box office potential as marketing approaches its final weeks.
5-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts
as of 6/4/26
Release Date |
Title |
Distributor |
3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
Domestic Total LOW-END |
Domestic Total HIGH-END |
Domestic Total PINPOINT Forecast |
6/12/2026 |
Disclosure Day |
Universal Pictures |
$40,000,000 |
$55,000,000 |
$50,500,000 |
$125,000,000 |
$206,000,000 |
$159,000,000 |
6/12/2026 |
Stop! That! Train! |
Bleecker Street |
$3,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$4,500,000 |
$5,500,000 |
$19,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
6/19/2026 |
Toy Story 5 |
Disney |
$145,000,000 |
$165,000,000 |
$155,000,000 |
$490,000,000 |
$602,000,000 |
$516,000,000 |
6/26/2026 |
Jackass: Best and Last |
Paramount Pictures |
$14,000,000 |
$19,000,000 |
$16,000,000 |
$28,000,000 |
$46,000,000 |
$38,000,000 |
6/26/2026 |
Supergirl |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$47,000,000 |
$60,000,000 |
$56,000,000 |
$107,000,000 |
$167,000,000 |
$137,000,000 |
7/1/2026 |
Minions & Monsters |
Universal Pictures |
$53,000,000 ($84,600,000 5-day) |
$62,000,000 ($99,000,000 5-day) |
$57,000,000 ($91,000,000 5-day) |
$248,000,000 |
$291,000,000 |
$268,000,000 |
7/3/2026 |
Young Washington |
Angel Studios |
$23,000,000 |
$35,000,000 |
$28,000,000 |
$85,000,000 |
$145,000,000 |
$105,000,000 |
7/10/2026 |
Evil Dead Burn |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
||||||
7/10/2026 |
Moana (2026) |
Disney |
All forecasts and tracking ranges are reflective of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not intended as final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances factored into our modeling.