This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Summer may not technically begin until mid-June with schools still in session for a few more weeks in most areas, but this is the weekend Hollywood for a quarter-century has unofficially used to kick off the four-month marathon haul of tentpoles.
Sinners (Weekend #3)
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $29 – 34 million
Thunderbolts*
Traditional Industry Tracking & Expectations: ~$70 million+
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $76 – 83 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- The Marvel Cinematic Universe’s latest chapter is trending close to initial high-end expectations in final tracking stages thanks to the lifting of last week’s social media review embargo and this week’s full critic reception, spawning an 89 percent fresh Rotten Tomatoes score from 125 reviews so far.
- Positive buzz could serve to bring in those casual viewers on the fence about each MCU title until they hear word from friends, family, and online circles, not unlike what occurred with Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 when it opened the same May weekend two years ago in the wake of Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania‘s post-opening discourse.
- A full assortment of premium screens and fan event previews timed with Thursday’s traditional previews add to the Thunderbolts* arsenal this weekend, in addition to being the first PG-13 tentpole geared toward similar demographics since the last MCU release (Captain America: Brave New World) in February.
- Sinners is still expected to continue its phenomenal run despite fresh competition, though. Its biggest disadvantage from a box office standpoint will be the loss of IMAX screens in totality to the Disney/Marvel release. That will noticeably dent average ticket prices this weekend as IMAX accounted for 22.4 percent of second weekend grosses after 19 percent on opening weekend. Nonetheless, the film is forging its own path and proved how robust its run should remain after easing just 4.8 percent last weekend against two $24 million-plus openers.
- Debuting in semi-wide fashion, Lionsgate and Roadside Attractions will leverage Nicolas Cage fandom with The Surfer in approximately 900 locations this weekend. Forecasts are volatile due to limited tracking information and pre-sales weighting heavily toward a special event Q&A screening, but it stands a shot at cracking the top five or six films this weekend.
Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 118 percent above the same weekend in 2024 ($68.35 million, led by The Fall Guy‘s $27.8 million and Star Wars: The Phantom Menace‘s 20th anniversary $8.7 million debut) and 23 percent below the same weekend in 2019 ($193.9 million, led by Avengers: Endgame‘s $147.4 million second frame).
Film |
Distributor |
3-Day (Fri-Sun) Weekend Forecast |
3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, May 4 |
Expected Location Count (as of Wed) |
Thunderbolts* |
Disney / Marvel Studios |
$81,300,000 |
NEW |
$81,300,000 |
~4,300 |
Sinners |
Warner Bros. |
$32,000,000 |
-30% |
$177,800,000 |
~3,200 |
A Minecraft Movie |
Warner Bros. |
$12,000,000 |
-47% |
$396,400,000 |
~3,600 |
The Accountant 2 |
Amazon MGM Studios |
$10,400,000 |
-58% |
$42,100,000 |
~3,600 |
Until Dawn |
Sony / Screen Gems |
$4,100,000 |
-49% |
$14,500,000 |
~3,055 |
The Surfer |
Lionsgate / Roadside Attractions |
$3,000,000 |
NEW |
$3,000,000 |
~900 |
The King of Kings |
Angel Studios |
$2,400,000 |
-43% |
$58,400,000 |
~2,600 |
The Amateur |
Disney / 20th Century Studios |
$2,200,000 |
-40% |
$37,200,000 |
~2,000 |
Warfare |
A24 |
$1,400,000 |
-47% |
$24,200,000 |
~1,400 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
For media inquiries or questions about our forecasts and services, please contact us.