The full version of this report appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Summer 2026’s final S-tier blockbuster tentpole joins our short range tracking report this week. To no surprise, Spider-Man: Brand New Day is shaping up to be a monster box office performer.
Over on Substack, you can view our 4-week forecast chart (available to all free subscribers), while our paying subscribers have first access to a full in-depth analysis and preliminary ranges and estimated pinpoints.
A quick preview:
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Spider-Man: Brand New Day (Sony & Marvel Studios / July 31) (Trailer)
- The Spider-Man brand remains among the sturdiest of big screen franchises as a generational favorite mythos whose relevance has been proven time and time again across eight live-action films and two hit animated releases over the last 24 years.
- Coming off the phenomenal $804.8 million domestic / $1.91 billion global run of No Way Home in late 2021 and early 2022, anticipation for Tom Holland’s fourth outing is high among fans of both Spidey and the broader Marvel Cinematic Universe.
- …
Full analysis and forecast charts available on Substack
All forecasts and tracking ranges are reflective of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not intended as final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances factored into our modeling.